Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2e79094cea13b19eb9a9c3378d564c7a29bd7ae790a057fb9d411ff62ce7549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 694.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 630.84$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 39c | 271.46$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 30c | 247.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 43c | 234.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 42c | 233.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 193.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 178.56$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 40c | 164.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 64c | 155.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 154.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 60c | 136.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 129.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 119.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d4a6backed Yes | 42c | 118.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 110.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 109.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 101.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked No | 72c | 96.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 41c | 93.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 85.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 78.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 77.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 77.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 73.61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 59c | 72.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 72.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked Yes | 42c | 61.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 147 | 25.2%37 W · 110 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 59c | 57.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 39c | 56.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 78c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 38c | 55.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 52.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 51.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…05ccbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked No | 66c | 44.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 59c | 41.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 41c | 41.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 35.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 35.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 40c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 65c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 38c | 29.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 59c | 27.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 51c | 25.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 78c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd79…989ebacked No | 67c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 19.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 70c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.