Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf153460c38cb53e16d9f8af2763dc14469e433a33acf86ae6b1583f67b2fa4c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 414.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 371.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 238.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 231.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 41c | 208.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 17c | 173.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 55c | 164.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 152.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 133.04$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 22c | 122$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 113.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 65c | 106.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 62c | 101.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 40c | 96.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 55c | 91.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 90.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 45c | 88.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 64c | 86.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 72c | 86.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 78.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 58c | 75.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed43…9f9cbacked No | 73c | 71.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 66.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 60.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 59.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 59.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 55.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 64c | 53.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 51.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 50.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 44.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 38.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 36c | 37.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 36.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 36.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 36c | 35.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 67c | 29.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 79c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 54c | 24.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 23.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 78c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 73c | 13.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.