Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Brett Newby be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e626809c6ab83d287f96d9f39bb4f575c7d0fcb194da8b377f9fdf5a7ac45f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 5c | 2,809$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…f203backed Yes | 3c | 572.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 492.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 22c | 338$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 325.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 262$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed Yes | 5c | 232.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 190.5$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 22c | 125$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 20c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaecf…625cbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 72c | 33.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brett Newby be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Teresa Ruiz be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.