Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Teresa Ruiz be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1e9395b9704614869c193488848a491112ccf6e9880fbad161f10410f0a5bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 79c | 6,000$4,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.69 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 18c | 1,404$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.82 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 531.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 20c | 419$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 19c | 416$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ab…6bb8backed No | 18c | 416$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 11c | 386.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 20c | 375$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 21c | 352$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 264.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 40c | 247.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 25c | 223$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…84a0backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 17c | 172$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 124.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 21c | 124.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 13c | 124$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaecf…625cbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…3797backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7d…058fbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…b109backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…6c11backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 35c | 33.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e0…4ca5backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 78c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Teresa Ruiz be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Brett Newby be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.