Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d3f130f39a6131234d9d78fa7331a631e9787cff687793930da603f84afc3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 14c | 6,272$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,406.7 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 26c | 4,710$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,485.53 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 30c | 3,837$1,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.7 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…d143backed Yes | 63c | 2,415$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 37c | 2,177$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.78 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 56c | 2,156$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 1,920$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.8 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 1,826$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.56 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 70c | 1,750$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.44 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes | 66c | 1,500$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 34c | 1,186$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.55 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 43c | 880.83$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.82 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 42c | 816.83$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 47c | 782.88$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed No | 64c | 719.56$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 542.37$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.15 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 427.21$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.13 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…9703backed Yes | 38c | 405.51$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 42c | 400$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.67 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 386.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 383$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.2 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 46c | 358.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 329.72$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.28 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 54c | 327$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.34 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1771…75cbbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes | 60c | 298$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…209cbacked Yes | 40c | 294$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 62c | 272.22$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 262.5$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 262.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 40c | 260$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked Yes | 24c | 258.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 38c | 257.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.86 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 42c | 248.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 59c | 247.06$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 53c | 231.67$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 37c | 229$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 32c | 220$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 70c | 198.52$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 48c | 181.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 54c | 172.79$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 50c | 168.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 47c | 165$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 157.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.19 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 34c | 149.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 42c | 143.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 39c | 131.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8486…d419backed Yes | 25c | 120.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 59c | 118$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 116$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 62c | 109.69$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 108.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.11 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 53c | 105.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 101.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…7832backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 97.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 41c | 97.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 33c | 95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 87.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 87.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed No | 45c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 52c | 73.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 70.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 63c | 68.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 67.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 64.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 63.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 56c | 62.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked Yes | 67c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed Yes | 58c | 56.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 54.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 40c | 52.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 45c | 51.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 38c | 50.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…99e6backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 34c | 49.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…6243backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 56c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 65c | 45.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290a…0994backed Yes | 29c | 40.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 40.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Martin be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.