AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9e8f3a58bae2bc2fc74c65706e48df892e92cd814d1502ff8148a15d874182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 74c | 1,104$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.14 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 9c | 575.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 65c | 562.53$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.35 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 20c | 531.74$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 328.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 16c | 254.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 145$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…97f7backed Yes | 71c | 140.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 13c | 128.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 18c | 124.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…51eebacked Yes | 52c | 114.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 12c | 114.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 105.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 17c | 103.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 18c | 95.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 27c | 93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 18c | 85.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 20c | 74.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 19c | 61.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2646backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…6c89backed No | 58c | 44.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed Yes | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…d03dbacked Yes | 68c | 28.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…83e1backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed Yes | 66c | 17.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?this page
- Will Shadowrocket be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?No won
- Will Wildwood: Follow The Crows be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.