Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ab353eb216f4d5c05c81e42e7276085c0fa625d8ea77b8b6b05dee44d0d9af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,032
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,032 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 1,416$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.54 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,233$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 55c | 827.59$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.84 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 40c | 818.8$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.46 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 50c | 639$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 60c | 608.52$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.07 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 63c | 537.09$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.07 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 63c | 498.93$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.42 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 394.64$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 46c | 259.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 250.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 14c | 229.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 213$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 51c | 197.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadc4…e4acbacked Yes | 44c | 173.58$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d18ebacked Yes | 41c | 123$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 39c | 110.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes | 50c | 83.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 75c | 82.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +135%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 50c | 75.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…1028backed Yes | 79c | 70.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +252.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 50c | 66.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1694…8badbacked No | 56c | 59.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -73%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked Yes | 45c | 58.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Yes | 51c | 58.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 56c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…7d7ebacked Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 48c | 54.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…2a51backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…cdb9backed No | 54c | 42.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.