Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18515aef2e3c102bc5804e33ea7cc2fe994651c5c059955be80164b04e81cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 3,640$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.15 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 48c | 2,086$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,760$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.3 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 3c | 1,281$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 51c | 887.21$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.23 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 51c | 647.65$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.83 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 41c | 412.69$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 39c | 411$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.52 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…c83bbacked No | 51c | 392$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 25c | 322.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.19 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 64c | 292.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 50c | 284$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 66c | 265$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 41c | 257.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 58c | 256.19$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 66c | 255$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 41c | 215.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 27c | 206.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 66c | 206$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.89 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 72c | 146.15$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 145$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 8c | 144.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c8…c674backed Yes | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 51c | 121.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes | 56c | 116.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked No | 52c | 112.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 17c | 110.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 32c | 102.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 79c | 102.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…fe7bbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 32c | 94.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe12c…def5backed Yes | 66c | 81.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe118…6748backed No | 71c | 64.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 57.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…30a3backed Yes | 67c | 55.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…c4f1backed No | 35c | 53.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…2a51backed No | 40c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…1323backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…a2c9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd927…33a7backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…aef9backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…c8d3backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…6af1backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…afb4backed No | 72c | 35.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52da…dd00backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…3f0cbacked No | 69c | 20.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…d8f2backed Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.