Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7552dce1c0935117bcfaff5e77e0e783138bbda98a37a825bfc20a2e9cca2add
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 1,800$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 1c | 1,257$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,146$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 40c | 586.98$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.24 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 49c | 558.84$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.8 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 75c | 534.53$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 60c | 377.01$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.68 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 303.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.99 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 201$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 69c | 190.15$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 42c | 158.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311d…5357backed No | 31c | 116.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…d5d4backed Yes | 55c | 100.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 17c | 92.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked No | 48c | 86.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes | 69c | 59.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…006abacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…80acbacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 27c | 44.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed No | 45c | 43.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa38…cb25backed No | 30c | 36.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…eb8cbacked No | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 75c | 25.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.