Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96b0277530d396ecf1aaa2d71cb4410cc85499048e3b1a01c0eab7081122ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,294$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.19 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 20c | 2,985$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.63 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 2c | 2,320$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 78c | 2,180$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.6 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 11c | 2,020$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 15c | 1,635$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.79 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed Yes | 1c | 1,129$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 18c | 893.12$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…8d57backed Yes | 24c | 818.64$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 669.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 556.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 21c | 539.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 21c | 527$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 500$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 26c | 378.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Yes | 3c | 371.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 21c | 312.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 266.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 6c | 251.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 21c | 114.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…e0e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…f399backed Yes | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8094…3bc4backed Yes | 18c | 66.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 74c | 61.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…3027backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 23c | 43.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.