Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x483219bce43fc74badc825449e15042a1bbff81125af1e808eaba39b224a68cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 7,479$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.06 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…fd70backed Yes | 7c | 1,125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 9c | 1,031$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.43 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf179…fd27backed Yes | 14c | 876.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 44c | 809.22$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.02 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 14c | 761.95$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 56c | 555.54$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.55 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 14c | 439.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 438.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked Yes | 11c | 365$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 349.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 329.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 303$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 4c | 279$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 35c | 272.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 10c | 243.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375a…dbd4backed Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…ef46backed Yes | 15c | 173$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 11c | 172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 144.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 68c | 116.6$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 105.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7a…dc52backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…dc6fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 76c | 79.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…d5d4backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…43b3backed No | 59c | 70.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8a…8f29backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $70 in June?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.