Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffa24a017e234aa7d1453747ce945351826078e4f5f40c2ebca3238dc0acfa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 36c | 1,218$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.77 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 1,059$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 575.39$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 42c | 519.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 405$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 269.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 246$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 223.87$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 34c | 208.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.89 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 171.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 167$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 57c | 166.17$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 160$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 157.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 142.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 142.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 139.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 13c | 138.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 58c | 129$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 43c | 128.72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 45c | 123$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 109.31$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 104.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 103.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 56c | 98.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 36c | 95.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 40c | 91.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 89.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 89.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 88.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…a3a9backed No | 53c | 87.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 50c | 86.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 80.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 48c | 79.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 77.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 64c | 75.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 42c | 69.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 42c | 66.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 15c | 65.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 62.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 61c | 58.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 65c | 56.88$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 52c | 55.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 48c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 35c | 53.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 53.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 51.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…d2f9backed Yes | 44c | 48.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 51c | 46.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed No | 76c | 45.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 45.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 43.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 43.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 45c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 29c | 38.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 47c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 35.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 35.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 48c | 30.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 53c | 29.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 29.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 29.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 57c | 23.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 58c | 23.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 55c | 18.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 63c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.