TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,073
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,323

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,073 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes36c1,218$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.7741845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c1,059$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.792,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c575.39$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc868…7bd7backed Yes42c519.04$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.13863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c405$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.345,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes37c269.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No64c246$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.834,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No76c223.87$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.313,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92e3…ab49backed Yes34c208.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.897138%27 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No61c171.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.184,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No58c167$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.215,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No57c166.17$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1686952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No69c160$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c157.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes42c142.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.297,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No53c142.01$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.743,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c139.54$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes13c138.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.332352.9%171 W · 152 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No63c135$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.959053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No58c129$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7180560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes43c128.72$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes45c123$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3591444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes36c120$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.041,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No49c109.31$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.021,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes46c104.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.052,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No61c103.23$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.914,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…405abacked Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7716833.9%57 W · 111 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.315939%62 W · 97 L+14.4wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No56c98.87$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8753855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes36c95.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2972952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd988…6ce5backed Yes40c91.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.711840.7%48 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No59c90$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3790555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes41c89.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.716,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c89.55$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No64c88.46$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.528,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf888…a3a9backed No53c87.22$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.821040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes50c86.71$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.234431.8%14 W · 30 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No53c80.08$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.941,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No48c79.89$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5413337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No57c77.16$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.163,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No64c75.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.091080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes42c69.84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3358152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaac4…efa0backed Yes42c66.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.149038.9%35 W · 55 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes15c65.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.062,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No63c62.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.732,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37df…f8b9backed No61c58.55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8311958.8%70 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b23…3ca8backed No65c56.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1123538.3%90 W · 145 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes52c55.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9975546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes48c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.435432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes35c53.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c53.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.419,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No54c51.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.851,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1293…e575backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231080%8 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd6…5ab1backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.93562.9%22 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x242e…d2f9backed Yes44c48.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No67c48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.921,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes51c46.75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.072,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed No76c45.08$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9723143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes44c45.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes47c43.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.665,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c43.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.153,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.677851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes45c39.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5599962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes29c38.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.312,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No73c38.38$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes47c36.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0825947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xede4…1c40backed No73c35.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6215369.9%107 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No55c35.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.972,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c35.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x65a5…2aeebacked No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.616453%87 W · 77 L-12.5wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No66c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5428456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes48c30.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.658732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.84,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…5d00backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810345.6%47 W · 56 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.833349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacac…50fbbacked No53c29.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0428360.4%171 W · 112 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No52c29.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.162,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No63c29.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.791,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No65c25.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.881,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed No58c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4919947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No57c23.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2942148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed No58c23.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8715346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4426958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No63c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1421451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No66c21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0567336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45d…93f1backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.66738.8%26 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c18.44$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.221,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed No63c16.14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9418038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.