Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44298ae3bce9bf38dd890cf747c01558603cdd7e21462502390582d6fdbe663e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 50c | 1,204$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.72 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 55c | 524.85$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.35 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 55c | 508.36$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.93 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 50c | 497.81$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 48c | 448.48$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.12 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 414.72$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 383.23$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 48c | 350$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 59c | 337.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 44c | 303.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 286.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 265.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 50c | 262.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 44c | 249.17$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 221.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 48c | 206.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 192.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 46c | 176.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 169.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 167$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 166.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 46c | 157.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 155.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 155$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 143.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 49c | 140$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 139$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 136.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 129$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 80c | 125.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed No | 43c | 118.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 54c | 114.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.15 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 109.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 107.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 42c | 104.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5acf…b102backed Yes | 67c | 100.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7195…177abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…f570backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 49c | 98.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 95.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 47c | 92.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed No | 45c | 91.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 91.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 52c | 90.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 65c | 88.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 36c | 87.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 85.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 82.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 71c | 82.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 82.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 80.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 48c | 78.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 76.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 66c | 76.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 52c | 75.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…4dfcbacked Yes | 53c | 69.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 48c | 68.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 65.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 41c | 60.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…a5a7backed Yes | 32c | 59.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 46c | 54.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…845bbacked Yes | 55c | 51.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1293…e575backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 66c | 43.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 63c | 40.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 54c | 39.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 39c | 39.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 47c | 39.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 45c | 36.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 58c | 36.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 35.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 32.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 32.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 50c | 31.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 38c | 31.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 44c | 28.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 46c | 26.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 25.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.