Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ac48ea2726bc3abf1abf56c7c796ec7be18d95446bddc6bfbb63ac20953328

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $31,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,749 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	10,875$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.42	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No	79c	2,485$1,971 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$514.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Yes	18c	1,257$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.03	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	16c	1,088$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.4	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Yes	10c	555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes	20c	555$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	77	33.8%26 W · 51 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes	18c	500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	187	39%73 W · 114 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	8c	469.96$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes	22c	343.9$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.35	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	24cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	16c	312.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	10c	299.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	200	31%62 W · 138 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes	21c	278$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.38	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	-11.1wins	-0.10per pick	48cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	550	44.7%246 W · 304 L	-27.4wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6dc…12ecbacked Yes	20c	200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…ea43backed Yes	23c	200$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	21c	172$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.32	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	6c	168.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes	22c	150$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x065d…a672backed Yes	18c	144.44$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	79c	133.07$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.36	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420f…9090backed Yes	11c	132.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+7.2wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+46.5%equal weight	61+0.09 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Yes	29c	125$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	132	59.1%78 W · 54 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	11c	109$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked No	76c	104.17$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb3…c495backed No	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	74cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa935…e865backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	302	41.4%125 W · 177 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c8…c674backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1019…3f35backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc87…0ff6backed Yes	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes	20c	74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	163	33.7%55 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	15c	73.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	20c	71$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	194	45.4%88 W · 106 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	23c	67.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes	32c	60$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	176	52.8%93 W · 83 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c7…806ebacked Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	62c	50.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34db…2e01backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes	21c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No	80c	44.34$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.87	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No	77c	42.72$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fa…a955backed No	79c	38.96$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc37…a2f4backed No	79c	38.63$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed No	77c	38.36$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.82	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed No	76c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	489	61.3%300 W · 189 L	+71.0wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	75c	23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.75	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.33	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd0…15b2backed No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No	73c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.07	68	70.6%48 W · 20 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event