Will m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a66a6558fb89d5d380cdb0cf2cddfa381c44749fbfc414d43b45428f416f241

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,976

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	0c	8,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.19	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5149…7efcbacked Yes	2c	5,501$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked Yes	3c	3,974$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.75	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes	0c	2,939$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.35per pick	48cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	2,931$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	200	31%62 W · 138 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes	3c	2,529$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.87	366	31.1%114 W · 252 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,184$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a1…6c38backed Yes	2c	986.34$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes	3c	439.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes	3c	400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	137	31.4%43 W · 94 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes	5c	360$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes	8c	186.49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked Yes	26c	154.7$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.38	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0eb…6d57backed No	64c	100$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	48	62.5%30 W · 18 L	+4.7wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will m0NESY attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event