Will Gareth Bale attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a2fe16fc18aeb5be6dfed38d8dcacb072fed7d384fb42ca4f37ef3ad2f3587

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $29,376
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,376 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	10,675$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.42	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Yes	8c	1,139$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.46	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…5866backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4299…10ccbacked Yes	9c	790$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	5c	760.96$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	200	31%62 W · 138 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	5c	630$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.56	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes	11c	504.88$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	240	37.1%89 W · 151 L	-17.0wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Yes	11c	499.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	93	22.6%21 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	9c	468.63$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No	77c	300.2$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.87	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	10c	299.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.22	91	24.2%22 W · 69 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes	12c	272.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.79	176	52.8%93 W · 83 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes	11c	206.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.77	90	43.3%39 W · 51 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes	13c	173.46$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	11c	153.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	11c	147.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	12c	119$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	9c	114$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	232	45.7%106 W · 126 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	12c	97.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed Yes	35c	40.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.07	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-68%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…0eddbacked Yes	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	40cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Gareth Bale attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event