Will Luka Modric attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb594e024356f49b6611785c8746850cc955253705361794ad063ccb9dcd25e

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $27,454

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,690 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes	13c	3,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	162	25.3%41 W · 121 L	-10.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	4c	1,810$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.21	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	17c	1,417$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.97	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	15c	1,379$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	4c	1,058$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	79c	920.49$723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.37	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	5c	920$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4299…10ccbacked Yes	16c	819.77$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes	14c	700$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	187	39%73 W · 114 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes	13c	598.6$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.95	91	24.2%22 W · 69 L	-5.2wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes	9c	575.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…9116backed Yes	18c	557.65$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.26	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes	19c	524.57$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.68	240	37.1%89 W · 151 L	-17.0wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	93	22.6%21 W · 72 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…8581backed Yes	8c	410.2$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Yes	14c	407.66$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.09	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	7c	406.82$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	200	31%62 W · 138 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes	9c	389.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	14c	262.65$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.77	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	16c	255$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	219.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes	18c	208.91$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	489	61.3%300 W · 189 L	+71.0wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes	18c	187.68$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	38cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1994…b4e5backed Yes	11c	179.8$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	-5.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	8c	171.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes	15c	150.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	131	48.9%64 W · 67 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes	15c	134$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	15c	126.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes	17c	102$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.22	108	53.7%58 W · 50 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b83…008bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a4c…a538backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	16c	99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	127	35.4%45 W · 82 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc0…f610backed Yes	14c	98.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes	17c	98.83$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes	18c	98.55$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	68	70.6%48 W · 20 L	+8.8wins	+0.13per pick	58cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0c2…51b2backed Yes	14c	88.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No	40c	81.1$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.46	225	50.7%114 W · 111 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55f6…e482backed Yes	29c	62.8$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52dd…005dbacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes	22c	50$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed Yes	48c	40.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	52	44.2%23 W · 29 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-3.5wins	-0.12per pick	57cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87c0…0eddbacked No	73c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	40cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cd0…15b2backed No	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+10%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Luka Modric attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event