TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Paulo Dybala attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,992 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c1,500$23 inLost-$22.5310%0 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes15c1,399$204 inLost-$204.33137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-86.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes4c999.99$36 inLost-$36.16280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x87e7…ea43backed Yes8c650$51 inLost-$5150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Yes27c499.99$135 inLost-$135825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes8c490$39 inLost-$38.7520031%62 W · 138 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb763…cce5backed Yes13c411.84$55 inLost-$55.123327.3%9 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c379$24 inLost-$23.897799.6%75 W · 704 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes7c377$26 inLost-$26.3911038.2%42 W · 68 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-22.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d27…2b9ebacked Yes9c346$30 inLost-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes8c300$24 inLost-$241181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.0wins+0.37per pick45cpaid+63.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes14c291$42 inLost-$42.0524037.1%89 W · 151 L-17.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eaf…34d1backed Yes20c240$48 inLost-$481414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes7c160$11 inLost-$11.213148.9%64 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No73c153.14$111 inWon+$41.7476445.9%351 W · 413 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1491…fd70backed Yes32c100.26$32 inLost-$31.685244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$10.673542.9%15 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes13c91.84$12 inLost-$11.944226.2%11 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x17f4…9d7fbacked Yes15c80.84$12 inLost-$12.3810853.7%58 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e08…d327backed Yes27c80$21 inLost-$21.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed Yes36c40$14 inLost-$14.42944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-26.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x87c0…0eddbacked Yes44c40$17 inLost-$17.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-80.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab45…7d04backed No77c19.48$15 inWon+$4.48955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.