IPO · resolved market
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc013a1256e8bc731d79d49c2bb10c1168c83bcc22d7b5c235f3b42b7520ea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4db1…e2abbacked Down | 8c | 9,809$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…3348backed Down | 0c | 3,603$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Down | 53c | 2,058$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…1f40backed Up | 77c | 1,944$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Up | 48c | 1,905$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.63 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fe…3a47backed Up | 78c | 1,777$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc59…6aadbacked Down | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2174…3d56backed Down | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed Up | 70c | 851.39$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…7239backed Down | 51c | 775$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Down | 2c | 720$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed Up | 47c | 716.37$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +202.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…bc25backed Up | 48c | 655$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.65 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Down | 52c | 555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Down | 52c | 554.96$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.58 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…67b7backed Up | 51c | 479.96$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…86cfbacked Down | 54c | 300$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Up | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a0…0d5cbacked Up | 79c | 284.31$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 52c | 252.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Down | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Down | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Down | 20c | 247.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Up | 46c | 209$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d46dbacked Up | 45c | 200$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…0e00backed Up | 45c | 196.5$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919c…b114backed Up | 43c | 160$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Up | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Up | 45c | 149.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…b9a6backed Up | 49c | 118.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…2517backed Up | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked Down | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Up | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e0…89e4backed Down | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Down | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Up | 69c | 91.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Up | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 53c | 80.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…f9cebacked Up | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…ffebbacked Down | 15c | 71.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…50c4backed Up | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…460dbacked Up | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Down | 24c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0f71backed Down | 51c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Up | 68c | 53.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Down | 34c | 53.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8925…685abacked Down | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…dbc3backed Down | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…e987backed Up | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Down | 53c | 50.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Down | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…213ebacked Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Up | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…af92backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…c73fbacked Up | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Up | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Up | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…6e31backed Down | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Down | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…83fcbacked Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…b145backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a90…de67backed Down | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…4f8abacked Up | 70c | 49.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Down | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ab8abacked Down | 43c | 37.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Down | 31c | 36.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…f86bbacked Up | 47c | 31.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Down | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Up | 52c | 26.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Down | 59c | 25.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd74…47c5backed Up | 45c | 23.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…fcffbacked Up | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Up | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Up | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.