TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,615

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,589 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c1,036$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.142,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked No27c909.29$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.5928829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb347…a115backed Yes24c878.36$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.411041.8%46 W · 64 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes21c785.49$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7742036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c552.01$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.048,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x658b…84bfbacked Yes47c454.97$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6520445.1%92 W · 112 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes76c424.63$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.731,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes19c396.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.971,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9e7…ed80backed No35c345.48$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.566552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes36c307.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5823269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes50c271.83$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.136,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed No67c209.06$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2312052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No55c207.95$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.361,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes37c207.9$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.141033.7%138 W · 272 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes51c202.72$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed Yes66c195$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2514054.3%76 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes14c177.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes29c172.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.573,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes35c166.96$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6922849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5122550.7%114 W · 111 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes68c149.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.991,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No61c147.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2228244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No46c145.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.824,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c145.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.412,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes23c141.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.472,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdc4…4d11backed No33c130.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.223234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No50c129.31$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.234,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes26c127.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes58c113.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.733,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No34c108$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.85,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked Yes50c106.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1219461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No61c97.77$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c92.89$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.399,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes44c92.72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.832,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No25c92.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8572backed Yes37c92.11$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.062161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No30c91.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.224,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No69c88.78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.964460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes53c85.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.21,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No45c82.84$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.33,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No46c81.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No76c80$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.239543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes25c78.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2087437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes22c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes77c72.72$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.226850%34 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No34c70.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.541,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No25c64.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1425954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No62c64.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6161820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes47c63.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked No72c61.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1914746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3044058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes45c59.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.622,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes54c55.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3025058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf876…79a1backed No78c52.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.491973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes21c51.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7933962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.577851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes48c48.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed No79c47.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6924751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x846b…63b6backed No28c46.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.95343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x987a…d921backed Yes25c45.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb5…8353backed Yes27c41.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No26c41.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.486,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes57c40.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0330849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No62c38.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.673,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes51c36.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.351,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes69c34.3$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.671,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No44c33.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5290555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9125747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c7…1c86backed No63c31.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7411844.1%52 W · 66 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No48c31.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.281,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked No76c31.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.529960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes55c30.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8947935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.823668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked Yes73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.751,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No77c29.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.712,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No78c29.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.455954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e04…80babacked No62c29.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.046349.2%31 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.284,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe128…ccb4backed Yes73c27.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f77…4b79backed Yes55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No64c25.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.231,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No46c25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.544366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.513959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed Yes73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes43c24.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.559262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x2467…2650backed Yes70c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.098877.3%68 W · 20 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No73c21.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8646549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.664859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa109…7e42backed No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211068.2%75 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc287…0a56backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.