Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x580b727096dc4ccfdabaa34177824c3c17e269b0e6517cdbb0f553df47d989fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 1,036$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 27c | 909.29$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.59 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 24c | 878.36$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.4 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 21c | 785.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.77 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 552.01$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 47c | 454.97$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.65 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 76c | 424.63$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 396.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 35c | 345.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.56 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 36c | 307.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 271.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 67c | 209.06$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 55c | 207.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.36 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 37c | 207.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 202.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 66c | 195$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 29c | 172.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 35c | 166.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 61c | 147.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 145.7$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 23c | 145.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 141.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed No | 33c | 130.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 129.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 127.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 113.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 108$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 50c | 106.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 61c | 97.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 92.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 92.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 37c | 92.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 91.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 69c | 88.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 53c | 85.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 82.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 46c | 81.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 78.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 77c | 72.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 70.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 25c | 64.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 62c | 64.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 72c | 61.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 45c | 59.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 54c | 55.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 78c | 52.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 21c | 51.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 48.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 79c | 47.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 28c | 46.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…d921backed Yes | 25c | 45.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb5…8353backed Yes | 27c | 41.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 41.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 57c | 40.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 38.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 51c | 36.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 69c | 34.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 44c | 33.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…1c86backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 48c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 76c | 31.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 55c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 29.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 78c | 29.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 62c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f77…4b79backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 64c | 25.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 43c | 24.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 70c | 23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 73c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc287…0a56backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.