Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e81c24d87953721db1dc8222eef8fd282faf33985a6941d6f97045845f3b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 286.72$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 285.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 226.18$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 79c | 220.12$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 77c | 210.76$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 201.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 183.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 131.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 129.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 46c | 121.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 20c | 120.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 34c | 106.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 103.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.63 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 11c | 97.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 92.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed No | 77c | 91.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 39c | 83.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 24c | 77.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 75.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 72.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 34c | 69.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 74c | 67.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 64.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 33c | 60.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 45c | 59.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 28c | 56.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 49c | 56.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 23c | 51.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 49.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 34c | 48.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 43.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 41.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 39.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 53c | 32.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 30.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 66c | 25.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 79c | 20.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 17.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ec…9782backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.