Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09e5dd2d6aa88ade16de59214052eb4b8451a9d5f70478ebadaa54da04ee63bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea40…86b9backed No | 0c | 6,729$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 0c | 5,023$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe234…304abacked No | 1c | 3,026$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb368…202bbacked No | 1c | 2,752$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 16c | 1,945$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 8c | 1,385$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,065$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…6daebacked Yes | 27c | 959.06$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +263.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e4…175fbacked No | 48c | 955$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…7ae7backed Yes | 27c | 855.49$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +276%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 73c | 788.66$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.97 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 49c | 722.19$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 30c | 659.21$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 63c | 552.25$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.69 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked Yes | 77c | 538.74$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 68c | 481.14$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…c193backed No | 56c | 446.76$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…8908backed No | 70c | 443.06$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 415.56$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…366abacked No | 73c | 410.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 67c | 399.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 9c | 333.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 74c | 309.55$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 66c | 303.7$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb66…5e13backed No | 54c | 300$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 299.98$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.99 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 271.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…8da0backed No | 21c | 257.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 47c | 242.43$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…68a2backed No | 65c | 227.18$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 39c | 207.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 30c | 200.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…ef9fbacked No | 31c | 195.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 70c | 194.91$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed Yes | 27c | 163.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a5…f1a8backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…c34dbacked No | 60c | 153.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 27c | 149$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…6cc2backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…754bbacked No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes | 75c | 128.24$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 53c | 121.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 23c | 119.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 113.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 33c | 112.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…51b8backed No | 51c | 107.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 103$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 27c | 101.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +115.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +263.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 69c | 84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 40c | 74.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17b5…d3a1backed Yes | 28c | 74.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +260.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 80c | 71.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 59.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes | 56c | 56.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e38…e544backed No | 75c | 47.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 31c | 46.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…93acbacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 61c | 41.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…1628backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…5138backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb2…3637backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x690f…ef8cbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +205.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…2a73backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…ffa1backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…56bbbacked No | 55c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…1306backed No | 60c | 22.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…c118backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…e9b8backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?this page
- Will Trump accuse Canada of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Germany of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Israel of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Mexico of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse North Korea of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Ukraine of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.