TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,301

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea40…86b9backed No0c6,729$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No0c5,023$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.942254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked No1c3,026$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-54.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb368…202bbacked No1c2,752$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No16c1,945$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No8c1,385$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.272556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes67c1,065$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.161833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2016…6daebacked Yes27c959.06$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+263.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0e4…175fbacked No48c955$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4452…7ae7backed Yes27c855.49$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+276%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No73c788.66$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.9721426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed Yes49c722.19$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.31540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8251…879dbacked Yes30c659.21$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes63c552.25$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.697844.9%35 W · 43 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a0…440cbacked Yes77c538.74$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed Yes68c481.14$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-51.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ca…c193backed No56c446.76$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e97…8908backed No70c443.06$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-52.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c415.56$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bf…366abacked No73c410.85$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked No67c399.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.993943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac6a…2ed3backed No9c333.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No74c309.55$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes66c303.7$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb66…5e13backed No54c300$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c299.98$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.9926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes55c271.88$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.285655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ed…8da0backed No21c257.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed No47c242.43$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff2…68a2backed No65c227.18$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes39c207.02$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12710137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed No30c200.12$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.92425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes79c199.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…ef9fbacked No31c195.7$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No70c194.91$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.831050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc676…f35cbacked Yes27c190$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa48c…5506backed Yes27c163.86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27a5…f1a8backed No32c156.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46c…c34dbacked No60c153.78$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes27c149$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.77771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90cf…6cc2backed No70c142.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1f…754bbacked No72c138.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked Yes75c128.24$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e7…5e49backed Yes53c121.78$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes23c119.35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.211560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c113.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.835327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No33c112.44$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.661330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc53a…51b8backed No51c107.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes29c103.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c103$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed Yes27c101.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+70.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…d06fbacked No25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x659c…a086backed No73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be4…dcbbbacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+115.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Yes28c99.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+263.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes69c84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No40c74.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-44.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17b5…d3a1backed Yes28c74.6$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+260.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes80c71.05$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.213627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes27c63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.99933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes25c59.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3112225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes27c57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.611650%8 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc713…f0bcbacked Yes56c56.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.85475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes40c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e38…e544backed No75c47.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No31c46.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.517518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb55e…93acbacked No69c43.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes61c41.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.35527.3%15 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No32c41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.123831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…9522backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff26…1628backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb082…5138backed No72c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed Yes80c40$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedb2…3637backed No38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf53a…7970backed Yes47c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x690f…ef8cbacked No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed No38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+205.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…2a73backed No76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8933…ffa1backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…56bbbacked No55c24.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17ae…1306backed No60c22.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed No72c21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c98…c118backed No50c20.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcab…e9b8backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-46.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2247…4304backed Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.