Ukraine · resolved market
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80903909b79a8189a2a3b90ab07c136cdb52969d1fecd13da585ba401619bb17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,059$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…879dbacked Yes | 35c | 859.61$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 699.99$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…0183backed Yes | 40c | 699.66$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 21c | 661.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 73c | 600$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 70c | 538$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 467.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 16c | 411$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 52c | 303.48$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…8908backed Yes | 66c | 302.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…366abacked No | 71c | 279.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 21c | 262$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 77c | 253.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 55c | 230$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456f…98d5backed Yes | 44c | 226.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +400.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…2223backed No | 76c | 199.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 197.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…f9bfbacked Yes | 8c | 185.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Yes | 56c | 170$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 52c | 137.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd784…8f5bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 28c | 99.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…3a36backed Yes | 20c | 98.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 20c | 90.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e7…5e49backed Yes | 25c | 79.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 55c | 77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 44c | 70.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde68…42cebacked Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 69.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…80b4backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 43c | 47.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a5…5d5fbacked Yes | 57c | 41.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 61c | 28.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed No | 43c | 27.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 60c | 19.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?this page
- Will Trump accuse Canada of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?Yes won
- Will Trump accuse Germany of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Israel of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Mexico of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse North Korea of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Russia of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Ukraine of election interference by July 16?No won
- Will Trump accuse Venezuela of election interference by July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.