Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9f5163f46f32a097ed9b2b27e52432f6302b2b227e32891171efde8c251391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 28c | 1,491$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.18 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 888.35$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 27c | 499.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 365.97$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 37c | 296.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 72c | 253.97$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 19c | 251$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 33c | 236.56$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 172.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 155.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 22c | 149.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 23c | 148.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 147.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 43c | 117.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 68c | 112.78$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 66c | 94.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 89.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 83.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 13c | 79.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 57c | 76.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 41c | 72.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 70.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 66.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 66.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 72c | 62.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 32c | 59.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 53.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 51.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 47.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…8282backed No | 73c | 46.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 46.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 45.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 45.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 40.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 35.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 63c | 32.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 48c | 31.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 56c | 28.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 26.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 57c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 71c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…c1e2backed No | 60c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed No | 58c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 71c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.