Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b6e7d12a2f15bdcc4b4c053a31ded8fa926a5602cc7a3f255b993187098141f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 39c | 780.08$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.62 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 321.01$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 44c | 298.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 241.55$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 14c | 214.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 203.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 203.16$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 42c | 191.31$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 136.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…261dbacked Yes | 45c | 106.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 69c | 94.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 90.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 67.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 66.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 66.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 64.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 59.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…a6bfbacked No | 51c | 54.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 56c | 53.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 51.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 43c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 46.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 59c | 42.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 38c | 31.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 61c | 30.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 48c | 28.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…3b0bbacked Yes | 42c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 54c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 18.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.