CS2 · resolved market
Will nocries play an HLTV-recorded match by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d65b2e9464274c38036b56a39ffee904e33787fcc7b1ff8a24651ee4cbd7104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,259$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed No | 55c | 613.83$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.23 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…fa7bbacked Yes | 16c | 335.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 248.44$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.47 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 228.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 46c | 140.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 20c | 134.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 11c | 126.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 113$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…60d2backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 11c | 95.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 78.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…e9e8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -58%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0d3ebacked Yes | 47c | 32.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…8adabacked No | 73c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.