Movies · resolved market
Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f87b415bf0fe61aa799906d28c3357a0ed98aa1c65a6fa75d70655f35b0a6fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 4c | 7,337$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 12c | 4,906$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 34c | 4,072$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.12 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,454$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…9811backed No | 75c | 3,120$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.4 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,518$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 9c | 2,252$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…c234backed Yes | 5c | 1,071$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 851.32$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.02 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 25c | 806.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.57 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 578.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 33c | 537.87$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.22 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 436.61$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 3c | 422.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 395.32$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.27 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 6c | 310.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 250.53$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.37 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 35c | 220$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…e4e0backed No | 73c | 197.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 27c | 196.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 65c | 170.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 16c | 162.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 21c | 148.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 141.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…2b17backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 10c | 128.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…9712backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 113.59$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed No | 79c | 101.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 79.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…c0b2backed No | 66c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1500…2105backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 79c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 22m?this page
- Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?No won
- Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?Yes won
- Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22m?No won
- Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 16m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.