TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 20m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,423

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No50c11,712$5,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,891.7217751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No2c8,687$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3129642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes43c6,646$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,768.529423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes45c6,140$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,399.7523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes75c3,138$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.5232739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No33c2,455$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$815.488442.9%36 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88ee…c234backed Yes64c2,418$1,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.882433.3%8 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes67c1,716$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.613243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No36c1,571$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.067537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No32c1,567$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.194238.1%16 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No38c1,228$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.188225.6%21 W · 61 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes58c1,200$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.5847328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No36c1,056$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4111240.2%45 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes42c897.39$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.3513735%48 W · 89 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-35.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No27c750.02$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7110436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No39c742.41$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No60c576.48$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.161250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+52.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No38c545.62$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.616833.8%23 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2330…ed99backed Yes54c545.02$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.262560%15 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a35…62b0backed Yes79c507.1$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d89…5382backed No66c500$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.570%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes18c496.2$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.7523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No10c479.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.733444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11c8…be84backed Yes70c449.32$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.325650%28 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes23c421.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.813635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes50c420$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.5810549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes63c390.36$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.365952.5%31 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c369.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.121,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes13c368.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.251546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No12c363.14$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.633748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes70c359.34$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.781855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf48a…e256backed No25c340.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c314.65$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.7211129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffbf…cc59backed No5c308.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes70c288.67$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7111924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes55c274.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.721060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x697a…4024backed No8c267.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb082…5138backed No32c249.4$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes27c240.74$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7426431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No25c234.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.7310042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed No39c222.18$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.2813119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes52c213.16$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.113056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f23…dc0cbacked Yes54c211.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.411546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked No9c190.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.67650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes18c190$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.055925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No45c189.72$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.135251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes75c185.8$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.963246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No42c182.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.885339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No31c172.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.133542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…ddb3backed Yes69c169.8$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No12c161.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+92.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c154$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.186747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes43c145.33$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.833545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No28c142.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.526855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No29c117.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-42%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17da…7e6cbacked Yes16c114.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+509.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes23c111.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.2329735.7%106 W · 191 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…3620backed Yes71c111.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes63c110$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.744643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…2ec2backed Yes27c106.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce3…f7abbacked Yes67c105.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No44c104$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.310339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes37c92$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes68c86.61$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.783545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked Yes58c85.74$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.393551.4%18 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No32c80.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.893557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No45c63.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.681,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b65…013ebacked Yes57c60.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.061250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3344…56c4backed Yes49c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.453148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No40c58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.034119.5%8 W · 33 L-7.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No45c56.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0114337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3056…c0b2backed No60c45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+31.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes55c42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.868231.7%26 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes37c41.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed No34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed No75c39.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.271428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes74c38.08$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No34c37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.732347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No63c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.123336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes63c31.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8610830.6%33 W · 75 L-13.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes73c30.6$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.758461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b5c…4568backed Yes69c29.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.03862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes73c21.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.773043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1500…2105backed Yes71c21.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.04955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick75cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6eb5…8353backed No54c19.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.