CS2 · resolved market
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cb1f842d2590ee379ee65dee24838211ff8317a77092f4983806a975f653ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2837…39d8backed No | 44c | 804.1$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 57c | 644.03$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.29 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 56c | 644$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.64 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 65c | 440.63$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Yes | 63c | 399.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.24 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 383.76$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 41c | 304.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 295.54$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fc…2ad3backed No | 29c | 256.82$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…3b26backed Yes | 31c | 185.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…1f62backed Yes | 55c | 182.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 27c | 155.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 154.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…1406backed Yes | 60c | 154.18$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…bb4fbacked Yes | 58c | 145.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 146 | 61.6%90 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 102.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…e4fcbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…2ea7backed No | 60c | 92.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 89.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 75c | 81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb93c…00e1backed Yes | 52c | 78.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…7e89backed Yes | 38c | 65.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9adbbacked Yes | 67c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 31c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…8037backed No | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ac…86e8backed Yes | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…9e2bbacked No | 67c | 52.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 35c | 50.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 50.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…a123backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 40c | 27.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b0…9fb0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…7c6abacked No | 56c | 19.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 58c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.