Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ad3e06af5f5ead389da07df780468b4b14b0be8503d9172f0c6fc044fc6f022
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 0c | 11,398$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 30c | 2,127$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,483.37 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 33c | 1,656$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.84 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 64c | 1,330$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…f533backed No | 66c | 1,291$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 33c | 1,175$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.92 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 49c | 1,055$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.82 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 13c | 957.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 29c | 940.13$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.82 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 18c | 887.46$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.42 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 61c | 808.48$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.75 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 800.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 36c | 646.37$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.85 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 42c | 591.91$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.82 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 579.02$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 45c | 508.99$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 40c | 480.73$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 440$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.29 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 422.42$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 31c | 402.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.45 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 402.67$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.97 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 43c | 390.13$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.74 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 384.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 36c | 369.37$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.38 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 345$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 53c | 338.84$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.47 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 337.14$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.46 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 35c | 332.28$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.95 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 328.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.27 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 310$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 27c | 282.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked Yes | 39c | 282.29$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 277.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 275$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed Yes | 62c | 268.24$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 250$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 248.3$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 49c | 209.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 59c | 200.22$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 20c | 199.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 32c | 196.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.72 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 74c | 194$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9052…653dbacked Yes | 32c | 183.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 178.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 173.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 65c | 160.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 149.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 148.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 39c | 144.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 144.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 62c | 140$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 136.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 73c | 129$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 125$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 124.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 68c | 119.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.36 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 27c | 117.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.57 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 115.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 24c | 114.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 29c | 113.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 61c | 109.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 40c | 108.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 37c | 108$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 39c | 107.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 41c | 107.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.28 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 38c | 104.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 40c | 101.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…f45ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 99.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 61c | 93.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 63c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 89.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…d13cbacked Yes | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 41c | 83.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 81.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 47c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.8 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 78.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 39c | 77.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 23c | 73.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 38c | 66.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 37c | 65.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f6…21d4backed Yes | 30c | 65.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…f777backed Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ee…bbbcbacked Yes | 72c | 63.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 62c | 57.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed No | 37c | 55.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5953…192fbacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 54.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 53.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 52.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.