Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac64c2fad47ca9807f44096d3eb3f1aa6f19f6cdf07c647b11870b1a527d031
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked No | 56c | 3,631$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.05 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 20c | 1,789$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.77 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 44c | 889.74$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.79 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 862.85$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 42c | 853.64$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.4 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 68c | 783.97$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 46c | 718.35$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.73 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 29c | 671.09$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.82 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 657.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 626.46$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 576.23$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 35c | 572.27$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.14 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 32c | 553.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.32 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 528.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 510.91$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 38c | 506.72$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 56c | 500$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.53 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…a6e8backed No | 36c | 496.91$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.17 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6b…b245backed Yes | 11c | 481.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 466.65$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 51c | 450.08$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.42 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd636…10efbacked No | 59c | 433.4$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.37 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 413.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.18 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 56c | 403.8$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.83 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 50c | 402.77$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.57 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 391.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…6e26backed Yes | 76c | 389.11$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 20c | 363.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 47c | 352.04$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 25c | 350.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 38c | 340.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.16 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 37c | 325.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 309.96$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 303.96$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 39c | 282.85$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 54c | 274.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 76c | 262.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 261.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 260.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 19c | 249.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 35c | 233.22$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 53c | 223.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 68c | 219.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.04 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked No | 34c | 219.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.59 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 77c | 215.9$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…a110backed No | 75c | 207.45$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 189$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.38 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 73c | 188$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 180$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 179.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked No | 55c | 169.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 19c | 158.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…24e8backed Yes | 60c | 143.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 79c | 141.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 25c | 134.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed Yes | 44c | 132.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 70c | 129.74$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 47c | 129$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f56…2adcbacked Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 59c | 127.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d8…ec63backed Yes | 42c | 126.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 125.14$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 124.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 18c | 121.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 52c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 28c | 115.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 75c | 111.53$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 111.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed Yes | 42c | 109.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 28c | 109.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 108.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 27c | 106$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 47c | 100.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b2…d3d9backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6b…9771backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…a7a1backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 52c | 96.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…fc5cbacked Yes | 44c | 93.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 92.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 76c | 89.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…7561backed Yes | 50c | 89.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 45c | 88.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 71c | 88.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 34c | 85.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 84.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.