Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbff6b4d48fc20c1b6a22a890bd40e981be691c7b95538eaeb005e4796b19e8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 0c | 22,950$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 0c | 19,798$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 3c | 4,456$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,035$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 2,724$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972e…e926backed Yes | 4c | 2,352$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,810$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,729$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 3c | 1,211$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,147$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 7c | 868.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 854.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 10c | 806.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed Yes | 3c | 746.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed Yes | 4c | 741.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 7c | 650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d4…7c98backed Yes | 5c | 579.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x395b…0a23backed Yes | 4c | 559.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ec…7ef0backed Yes | 4c | 436.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 11c | 405.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 3c | 367.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 3c | 347.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 318.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 302.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…c48ebacked Yes | 5c | 294.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 26c | 276.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 234.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 7c | 232.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 10c | 191.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 174.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 12c | 154.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 10c | 147.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 14c | 135.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 10c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 105.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…afe6backed Yes | 11c | 102.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 272 | 26.5%72 W · 200 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed Yes | 20c | 97.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.