Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d8ee9a92e84617fe629b1aab5d8af88dc0ab7c8247c9d3a3799a1c61435c31e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 29c | 3,812$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.64 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 1,736$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 353.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 337.93$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 266.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 38c | 258.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 246.49$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 72c | 233.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 29c | 175$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 173.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 169.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 69c | 147.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 33c | 129.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 127.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 119.15$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 115.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 112.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 111$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 107.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 72c | 98.8$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 97.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 30c | 86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 78.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 72.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 38c | 62.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 41c | 60.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 25c | 58.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 33c | 57.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 53.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 53.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 52.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 57c | 47.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 33c | 46.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 46.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 69c | 45.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 40.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 37.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 34.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 34c | 32.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…afc6backed No | 70c | 30.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…dcfdbacked No | 70c | 29.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…5904backed No | 70c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.