Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dbdb3f6a8bc1f5942c2d7655a74687c14945f810e0940c299a2d9b6ff058b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 729.68$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.67 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 674.93$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.71 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 373.12$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.05 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 261.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 243.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 55c | 232.22$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.53 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 79c | 219.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 45c | 204.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 15c | 148.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 29c | 144.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 42c | 137.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 136.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 132.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 129.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 9c | 120.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 118.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 114.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 110.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 15c | 108$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 105.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 104.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 104.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 20c | 100.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 27c | 97.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 85.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 84.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 23c | 79.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 34c | 79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 34c | 77.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 76.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 16c | 67.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 70c | 64.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 63.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 62.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c0…befdbacked Yes | 33c | 60.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 20c | 54.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 53.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 76c | 49.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 48.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 37c | 47.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 36c | 39.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 35.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…717bbacked No | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 23.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 78c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 80c | 17.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.