Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6473f93c9a572800b06c1c3f1b2000c3f26e8adf33b844c04d75b86e15b27d9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 471.05$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 28c | 322.35$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 68c | 290.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 23c | 274.96$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 226.7$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 42c | 206.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 46c | 174.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 173.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 55c | 164.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 162.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 60c | 159.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 155.14$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 58c | 153.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 143.03$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 44c | 121$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 18c | 119.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 118.2$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 101.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 98.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 97.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 91.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 43c | 85.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 80.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 78.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 39c | 76.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 57c | 71.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 70.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked No | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 53.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 36c | 39.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 42c | 38.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 37.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 46c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 33c | 36.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ae…9df0backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 58c | 32.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 30.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 65c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 47c | 27.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 26.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 46c | 23.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 22.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 59c | 19.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked No | 74c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…717bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.