TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,956
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,956 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe907…cff6backed Yes6c3,743$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.343,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes19c1,718$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.992,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes16c959.31$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.311,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes23c574.65$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.038,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes22c355.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3158152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9907…8a50backed Yes56c354.9$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.678046.3%37 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes24c350$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed Yes17c305.96$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0129345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes22c282.06$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.071225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No77c270$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.655,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c248.95$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.049,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No32c236.84$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.552,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes24c229.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.063,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c210$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.166,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Yes22c209.05$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.669148.4%44 W · 47 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+59.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes26c195.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5076936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No71c195$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.215,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes36c190.51$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3521132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes13c166.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c162.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.954,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes26c152.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6315660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes21c147.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.966654.5%36 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c146.55$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.854,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed No52c138$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0228244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes25c133.28$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.256358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed No73c128.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.915646.8%73 W · 83 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes55c124.71$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No74c123.29$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.484,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No73c121.84$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.499,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c9…c500backed Yes17c112$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.045437%20 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No59c110.81$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.367,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No76c106.92$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.343,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017637.5%66 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2317231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No69c99.37$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.81,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes24c98.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.681,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes34c96.37$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.035,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes21c89.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7496015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c86.59$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.624,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes17c76.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes62c69.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3827051.1%138 W · 132 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No80c65.86$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3198565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes47c64.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes21c62.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.151,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c61.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.016,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes26c60.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7444536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes68c60$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6586952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.723540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes23c59.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7149551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No78c58.92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7227056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes25c57.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes27c55.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9694552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No35c52.85$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3177151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No73c51.59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.974,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.518131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.515950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes20c49.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes48c48.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.162,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c8…f649backed Yes49c45.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2219947.7%95 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No74c44.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.42,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No80c42$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.458358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes55c35.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No57c34.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.071,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed No73c32.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.844346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed No77c31.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.161080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes51c30.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7738860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3f…5d84backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.580275.7%607 W · 195 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1441…0b51backed Yes38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No75c28.5$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1219071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked No73c25.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0146549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No80c25.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1688973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c25.2$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No69c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No75c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No74c23.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No72c23.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.482,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c20.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.32,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…6f6ebacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.214161.7%87 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.812,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54c…2c69backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3125560.8%155 W · 100 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No63c18.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.872,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.044,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed No78c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9725766.1%170 W · 87 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No77c16.35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8428455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked No73c15.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.29053.3%48 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No79c14.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.018564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.