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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c1,357$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.491,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes25c813$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.421,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes25c657.41$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.212,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No75c500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3752,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf591…b8c7backed Yes29c395.45$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c341.93$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.785,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes26c274.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c272.03$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.734,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No74c270$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.555,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No37c250$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.66,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes28c222.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3131936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes26c212.62$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.3432132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1362,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c196$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa30f…4da6backed Yes22c194.7$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.4121132.2%68 W · 143 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No21c191.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.421,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No73c185.1$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.951,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes26c177.32$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.414,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b7…3798backed Yes32c170.17$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.929148.4%44 W · 47 L+11.5wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+59.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes28c155.45$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.1315660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No74c154.37$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.93,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes7c140.01$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8496015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5470…0af7backed No72c139.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9932872%236 W · 92 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c138.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.024,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes24c129.1$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.421,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes77c121.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No70c120$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes28c118.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.140461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No75c111.06$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.31,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c108.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.116,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes31c104.7$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.776936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7226256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7022645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d30…91d6backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7517231.4%54 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c93.65$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.823,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes28c91.21$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.465,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c90$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x179e…2fe3backed No70c87.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5210857.4%62 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No74c86.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.161,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb1…6644backed Yes28c82.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4113540%54 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No70c82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.244,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked No15c81.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4122932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No71c80$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.82,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…bf63backed Yes23c79.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.026048.3%29 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No74c78.46$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.261,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes28c77.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.831,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2065…548abacked Yes30c77.55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.33923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No69c75$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes27c74.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.1825058.4%146 W · 104 L+22.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.977540%30 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes25c67.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.938,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed Yes67c66.3$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6615646.8%73 W · 83 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d640backed Yes28c65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.84961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes25c63.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.787437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.824,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.744536.6%163 W · 282 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c58.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.139,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No57c54.66$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.047,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No73c54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5864167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes28c53.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5718033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4c…03cabacked No75c53.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403652.8%19 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes31c53.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.372,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes27c51.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8820341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes27c50.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9551…ca44backed No68c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3415950.3%80 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed Yes46c43.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8618347%86 W · 97 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5579…2db1backed No75c43.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5513852.9%73 W · 65 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x988e…d0d0backed No74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011369.9%79 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick71cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c35.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No76c34.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.182,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa83…18cebacked No74c31.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.32944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No36c31.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No74c31.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.812,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c30.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.82,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.83,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No37c27.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes78c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4454154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No73c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2551568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x751a…ee1abacked No76c24.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241030%3 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick60cpaid-40.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No75c23.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8798565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No72c20.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9926958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a09…9b7fbacked No71c20.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3615850.6%80 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1534853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.952,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.023,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No68c15.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…dd86backed No76c14.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.788564.7%55 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.