Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e8bc5400038b37d39de2150cafc248babcc92afc621ab29e01c5181913348c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 1,357$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.49 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 813$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 657.41$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.21 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…b8c7backed Yes | 29c | 395.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 341.93$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 274.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 272.03$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 270$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.55 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 37c | 250$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 28c | 222.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 26c | 212.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.34 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 196$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 22c | 194.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 191.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 185.1$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 26c | 177.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 32c | 170.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed Yes | 28c | 155.45$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 154.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 7c | 140.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 72c | 139.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 138.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 129.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 77c | 121.82$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 28c | 118.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 111.06$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.3 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 108.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 31c | 104.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 93.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 91.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 70c | 87.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 86.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 28c | 82.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked No | 15c | 81.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 23c | 79.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 74c | 78.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 77.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 30c | 77.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 27c | 74.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 67.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed Yes | 67c | 66.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 63.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 58.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 54.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 73c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 53.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 27c | 51.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 27c | 50.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 46c | 43.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 75c | 43.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 35.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 34.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 74c | 31.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 36c | 31.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 31.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 30.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 37c | 27.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…ee1abacked No | 76c | 24.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 23.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 71c | 20.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 15.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 76c | 14.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.