Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c73d72d0ff6d131b916b303d3e28ac4058cf4c805f26c1bb38d62a6b834c1d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 27c | 2,109$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.26 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 1,270$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 31c | 749.21$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.8 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 423.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 19c | 370.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…178dbacked Yes | 74c | 337.36$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 72cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 71c | 287.08$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 48c | 284.27$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.52 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 211.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 205.48$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 183.63$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 178.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 33c | 165$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…7707backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 126$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 18c | 123.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 73c | 118.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 47c | 108.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 107.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.47 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9701…921abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 95.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 90.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 82.9$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 82.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 82.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 82.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 78.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 76.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 74.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 16c | 74.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 74.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e02…ce11backed Yes | 64c | 70.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed Yes | 26c | 69.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 23c | 65.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 77c | 43.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 26c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked Yes | 24c | 41.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 78c | 38.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 35.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 35c | 29.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 51c | 29.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 54c | 27.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 22.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 75c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 74c | 21.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…db0cbacked No | 74c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 74c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 17.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 16.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 78c | 14.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 13.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.