Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4596e44bff1f7edf059d6943b821871d102980184b997b57c8157539eb4959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 994.11$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 23c | 909.61$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.85 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 25c | 787.68$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.21 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 603.91$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 286.6$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 253.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 205.48$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 76c | 201.02$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 18c | 168.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 74c | 153.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 15c | 150.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6122…7b8fbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 17c | 146.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 74c | 128$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 126.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 72c | 122.37$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 121.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 75c | 118.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec4…daa4backed Yes | 22c | 115.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 111.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 33c | 101.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 76c | 99.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 95.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 94.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 73c | 86.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 85.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 15c | 84.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 82.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 80.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 80.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 23c | 69.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 69.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 21c | 67.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 26c | 63.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 61.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 72c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…48b6backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 75c | 50.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…9074backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 77c | 39.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 39.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 38.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 38.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 32.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 32.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…3277backed No | 72c | 28.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 78c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cc…1e1dbacked No | 72c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 78c | 14.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 13.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.