Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05b36b44d2e14236bd448a8d8e8c7ee8ebb5b26855a94a6ddae873bdd6469fae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 426.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 30c | 421.94$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.58 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 14c | 395.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 388.3$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 357.95$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed No | 15c | 347.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 31c | 316.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 9c | 288.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 70c | 205.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 61c | 194.25$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 24c | 191.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 188.51$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 187.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 69c | 168.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 134.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 29c | 129.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.58 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 126$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 124.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 119.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 118.34$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 28c | 117.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 117.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 14c | 116.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 113.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 103.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.06 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked Yes | 32c | 102.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 95.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 19c | 94.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 94.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 60c | 93.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 91.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 20c | 90.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 90.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5f…bc30backed No | 14c | 86.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 21c | 84.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 83.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 13c | 83.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 81.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 76.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 65.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 59.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…45f7backed Yes | 61c | 52.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 50.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 62c | 48.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…372fbacked Yes | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 32c | 43.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 31c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 60c | 38.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 37.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…18cebacked No | 70c | 33.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d6…f620backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 76c | 27.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…0115backed Yes | 73c | 25.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 79c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 54c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 70c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 78c | 22.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…3cecbacked No | 80c | 20.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 34 | 82.4%28 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 78c | 19.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd751…bde5backed No | 71c | 14.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…8816backed No | 77c | 13.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…c708backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…3d7dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.