Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe695960302e4c552929cbfc1c45dad5056db37293faccde17d94bd184d6233
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 1,298$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.29 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 750.54$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 67c | 488.54$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.28 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 357$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 33c | 350$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 330.65$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 71c | 267.65$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 223$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 31c | 189.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 163.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 15c | 154.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 142.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 8c | 139.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 125.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 15c | 119.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 117.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 33c | 106.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Yes | 31c | 104.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 13c | 92.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 16c | 85.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 15c | 68.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 69c | 63.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 72c | 55.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 54.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed Yes | 30c | 54.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 44.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 44.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…61f9backed Yes | 26c | 43.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 30.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…fd3bbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 17.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 71c | 16.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 72c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.