Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4480e7da6a294567b9c7a56b684ec8959a0c44858e871012ec5ed6654a5ff2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,678$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 35c | 1,344$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.62 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 1,251$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.74 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 747.79$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 625.09$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 571.69$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 77c | 501.7$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 501.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 413.03$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 46c | 344.38$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.85 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 16c | 265.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.87 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 242.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 240$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed No | 43c | 229.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 224$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 223$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 27c | 220.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 212.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 52c | 208.12$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 203$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.35 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 45c | 197.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 195.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 181.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 6c | 173.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 167.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 57c | 150.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 150$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 51c | 142.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 133.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 130$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 78c | 128.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 124.59$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 104$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 103$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 101.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 52c | 98.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 98.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 46c | 97.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 51c | 97.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 41c | 95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 81.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 45c | 78.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 47c | 72.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 41c | 72.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 47c | 72.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 71.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 70.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 65c | 65.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 55c | 64.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 63.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 63.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 61.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 34c | 60.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 58c | 60.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 60.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 59.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 57.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 25c | 57.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 27c | 55.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 49c | 52.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 40c | 49.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 55c | 48.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 49c | 48.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2b…0bb8backed Yes | 49c | 46.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 45.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 43.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 42.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 40.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 45c | 38.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 40c | 37.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 46c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 46c | 35.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 33.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fa…7baabacked No | 52c | 33.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 51c | 32.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 58c | 31.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 50c | 31.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.