Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73991db6180f6a3f56ac55ae030285132a6bac6c9f8840787205108d7eb19311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 25c | 1,493$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.87 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 972.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 932.81$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.19 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 22c | 906$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.28 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 656.42$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 79c | 645.14$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 77c | 600$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 19c | 484.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.19 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 480.11$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 478.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 413.03$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 401.46$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.85 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 372.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 300.69$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 287.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 277.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.38 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 226.15$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 223$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 13c | 206.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 27c | 187$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 174.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 31c | 161.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 159$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 47c | 156.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 45c | 151.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 24c | 150.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 149.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 126.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 125.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 124.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 122.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 45c | 120.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 22c | 119.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.89 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 19c | 115$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 11c | 109.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 108.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 104.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 101.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 100.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.33 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 77c | 94.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0616…ea27backed Yes | 16c | 91.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 21c | 83.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 82.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 43c | 80.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 55c | 78.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 76.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 73.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 70.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d3…5122backed Yes | 75c | 69.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 29c | 69.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 67.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 65.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 63.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 75c | 63.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 62.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 68c | 62.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 61.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 61.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 79c | 60.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 18c | 59.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2350…a351backed Yes | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 57.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 78c | 51.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 50.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 41c | 48.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 48.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 47.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 46c | 47.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 33c | 46.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 43.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 51c | 41.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 36c | 41.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd47f…6532backed No | 34c | 40.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 31c | 38.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…70e8backed Yes | 32c | 37.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.