AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b19fc6b6b8a65e5fa3cce108615c2bf5d85f4a3422fdf0e5aeb6688956ac98a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 3,058$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 1,191$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.58 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 60c | 895.82$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.59 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 71c | 677.38$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.24 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed No | 43c | 451.96$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 443.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked Yes | 4c | 355.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 29c | 297.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 248.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes | 56c | 180.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 9c | 157$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…eb2abacked No | 77c | 156.09$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 27c | 149$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…9f9cbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1381…28bcbacked Yes | 27c | 92.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed No | 54c | 60.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…0a24backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3472…f828backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…82b8backed Yes | 29c | 36.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…6af7backed Yes | 44c | 34.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed Yes | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 49c | 32.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 48c | 31.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 39c | 26.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…51d5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…e4dabacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…1cc8backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…4793backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…66b1backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…7aedbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.