AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c2ca21665bd7895ec4e6963b5fe66a5a881b9cccc6eadaac230c57864d84255
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb9c…79fdbacked No | 1c | 13,401$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed No | 6c | 4,167$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…aedcbacked No | 3c | 2,887$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 65c | 2,865$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.8 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…d258backed No | 1c | 1,109$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 1,091$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.35 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 1,041$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.27 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 19c | 976.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.71 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae2…1032backed Yes | 7c | 911.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 12cpaid | +625.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 2c | 900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed No | 1c | 872.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 10c | 308.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 4c | 291.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 22c | 269.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 63c | 261.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d3…60f9backed No | 8c | 235.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…5411backed Yes | 7c | 168$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +637.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa21…f3f4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 25c | 107.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 53c | 65.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 35.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.