AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb5fdc9c5defdefe85dbd34a31510b30c1b0ffd0ab5c0390b4fe4b2f22bca331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 65c | 1,445$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.19 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1daa…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 807.55$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.75 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed Yes | 37c | 154.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 39c | 145$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 19c | 136$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 64c | 134.15$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…bd55backed Yes | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…2ddcbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 21c | 77.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 17c | 67.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…389dbacked Yes | 45c | 55.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 54c | 51.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09b…0a70backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x898c…b48fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 41c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 54c | 23.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked No | 78c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…2fcfbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…4fc1backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1510 and 1520?No won
- Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.