NHL · resolved market
Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fd93cdcb01c78e9313cf8eaf1fcfebd9f0fa5d80587498d76c708a5db04f5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3b0…8501backed Yes | 16c | 210.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2277…6604backed Yes | 16c | 194.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1f…6465backed Yes | 16c | 184.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x428f…5d1bbacked Yes | 16c | 176.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 17c | 123.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 122.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…c395backed Yes | 16c | 107$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…a1b7backed Yes | 16c | 71.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Villeneuve be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?this page
- Will Alberts Smits be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Alexander Command be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Chase Reid be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Gavin McKenna be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?Yes won
- Will Keaton Verhoeff be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Maddox Dagenais be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Marcus Nordmark be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Ryan Lin be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Tommy Bleyl be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
- Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.