AI · resolved market
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8490339ca11c82204a1f5cec719d7699a989a9c3aab6b29f6e3453208a747a30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 914$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed No | 39c | 782.43$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 37c | 605.6$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b9…90d0backed Yes | 15c | 450$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 79c | 374.44$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 46c | 291.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 39c | 253.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 42c | 203.56$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.1 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 70c | 203$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 164.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 67c | 164.22$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed Yes | 57c | 154.39$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 44c | 134.41$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.27 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed No | 42c | 128.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 112.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 18c | 75.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed Yes | 74c | 58.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 42.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9793…913cbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 56c | 29.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed Yes | 66c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 74c | 26.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 73c | 23.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 53c | 21.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…b608backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.