AI · resolved market
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3cbd1cb6be8084efb887275e702f3e65cc525956118bb466120f7a67c429df0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,920
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,920 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 27c | 2,120$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.38 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 14c | 1,754$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.37 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 59c | 1,403$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.47 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,199$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 74c | 1,101$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 41c | 914$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.6 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked No | 77c | 909.99$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked Yes | 55c | 577$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 70c | 486$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.47 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 60c | 431.98$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.31 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 13c | 424$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 353.21$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.31 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2466…63bebacked Yes | 5c | 316.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 15c | 311$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.05 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 24c | 300$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 21c | 277.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 72c | 266.7$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.15 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 164$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…2722backed Yes | 51c | 148.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 107.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 16c | 105$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 67c | 89.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 87.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 16c | 64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…0776backed Yes | 56c | 60.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed Yes | 42c | 53.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7101…1441backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.