Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc37125af70fb7d993a48d19f161e4edb42fce116f1581f91d03a3470be2d023
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 27c | 600.34$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Under | 32c | 502.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Under | 27c | 430.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Over | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Over | 73c | 371.23$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 75c | 350$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 20c | 300.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Under | 31c | 165.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Over | 72c | 158.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Over | 74c | 146.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…d0e7backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cc…88c1backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 25c | 40.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…9809backed Over | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…30e9backed Over | 75c | 21.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b1…9380backed Over | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…3dd0backed Over | 72c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b83…9083backed Over | 72c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f9…d824backed Over | 72c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…d133backed Over | 72c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de MinaurSinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs MinaurSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Minaur (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Sinner vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.